Matthew Simmons

Oil industry insider Matthew Simmons has been making the talk show rounds with his theory that the blowout preventer (BOP) stack that BP is working to cap is not the source of the major portion of the oil showing up in he Gulf.

I had initially dismissed Simmons' concerns because I first heard that he was claiming that the explosion had blown the BOP stack seven miles away from the well head, and the well head was now an open pit spewing oil. This seemed pretty far-fetched considering that the GPS coordinates of the well were known to BP and they would know if they were seven miles away from the MC252 well. This theory also provided no explanation for the source of the oil continuing to gush from the derelict riser.

Simmons now posits that the explosive blowout compromised the integrity of the well casing and that crude oil is spilling directly from the bottom of the Gulf. He speculates that the amount of oil flowing from the LMRP is a small fraction of the total leak. His theory has now gained the support of Sen Bill Nelson (D FL). The "compromised well casing integrity" theory is making the rounds of the "blogosphere" but has not yet been picked up by the MSM. This definitely bears watching.
Updated:
Crooks and Liars has video of Simmons from MSNBC. He proposes a worst case scenario of 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day.